Gold is on shaky ground after its biggest one-day crash in 30 years and consumers in the UAE are loving it.Merchants in Dubai say daily sales have shot up by 400 per cent, but many experts are wondering if it's the right time to invest in the precious metal.
"Our Gold Souq shop in Dubai witnessed a significant rush of jewellery buyers as the prices plunged to two-year low on Friday. It spurred daily sales to around 400 times," says Firoz Merchant, chairman of Pure Gold Jewellers.
The Pure Gold outlet at Gold Souq sold about 15kg of gold on Saturday as compared to the average 3-4 kgs before the record plunge.
A broken bull run does not mean this is the opportune time to go for gold and experts are wary about forecasting where it will all end. But Merchant is savouring the moment and calls it a "a tsunami for gold retailers and investors". He says no one expected the metal to fall so rapidly and quickly disengages himself from a short-term forecast.
The price of gold logged its biggest one-day decline in more than 30 years on Monday, tumbling $140.30, or about nine per cent, to $1,361. Prices have lost 28 per cent since reaching a record on September 6, 2011.
Gold prices recovered some losses on Tuesday after suffering their heaviest slump in 30 years. The precious metal rose 2.8 per cent to $1,385.60 an ounce by 11.26 am in London, reaching as low as $1,321.95 earlier. Bullion for June delivery was 1.8 per cent higher at $1,385.70 an ounce on the Comex in New York.
To a question about plunge in gold prices, Merchant said uncertainty on the international front [especially in Europe] and speculation about the precious metal outlook triggered the sale in markets across the emirate.
"If the same trend continues, gold will no more enjoy a safe haven status as not only investors and retailers, but the consumer will also sit on the sidelines," Merchant cautions.
"Even consumers who took the advantage of record low prices, will lose their trust if the trend or uncertainty continue any more," he observes.
Merchant advises a wait-and-watch approach during this period of uncertainty. A little patience will go a long way, he seems to suggest and is optimistic gold will recover in the long term as most investors still have a faith in its safe-haven status. "It's time to sit calmly, wait and watch the situation. There is no need to panic," he says.
On the expansion plans of gold retailers, he says they will have to revise their strategy in line with the new 'unseen scenario' which has emerged lately. "Brands and big retailers may absorb the shock, but small traders and retailers will face difficult times ahead as investors will pull out their investments in gold.''
Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group said 10-tola bar prices tumbled by Dh2,410 over the past four days, to Dh18,840 on Tuesday afternoon.
The 10-tola bar stood firm at Dh21,250 on Friday, but recorded significant declines on Saturday and Monday.
Ole Hansen, head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank, says gold's multi-year rally is probably over, but it is too early to make a call for a complete trend reversal. "The coming days and weeks will be very important as this has now become a war of nerves."
"We maintained a constructive view on gold, but were also aware that a break below 1,500 an ounce would be a potential game-changer. We look for support towards $1,300 an ounce followed by a long period of consolidation, with the $1,550 per area offering resistance," he says.
He said fundamental support for gold has risen, but has been ignored in recent weeks. "The process of rebuilding investors trust will be a long one and one that has not yet begun," he says.
Gerhard Schubert, gead of commodities — Wealth Management, Emirates NBD, also expects some correction in prices next week.
"I do expect the market to see some short covering next week, as the market closed on the multi-year low. The former support area of $1,526 will now become a formidable resistance area," Schubert says.
"The gold market has, more or less, officially slid into a bear market," he says.
Elaborating on the bear gold market, he says the popular definition of a bear market is when the commodity in question not only trades, but closes at a level of at least 20 per cent under its all-time highs. The reverse psychology indicates that only a close above $1776 would re-establish the bull market.
"I am not going to list all the various reasons for the price decline [ETF outflows, stronger US dollar, stronger US equity markets, etc.], but it appears that any price rally in the near future can and will only be described as short covering rallies. Make no mistake, the official sector will continue buying gold for the purpose of risk diversification, but these purchases might also start to slow down," he says.
muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com
Price plunge a surprise? Not exactly
Staff Report
Did the falling gold prices hit like a bolt from the blue? Certainy not — at least for Khaleej Times readers — as we had predicted volatility of gold prices in a New Year special report on January 5.
The yellow metal had been keeping a steady price trend in the past three months before turning bearish and hit a two-year low on Monday.
Discussing possible trends for the yellow metal in the January report, some investors, retailers and commodity traders had opined that that gold had already hit the peak level of $1,923.70 an ounce on September 6, 2011. They had predicted that gold prices might plunge from $1,650 an ounce in January to $1,250-$1,300 an ounce in 2013.
On the other hand, some gold enthusiasts had quoted Deutsche Bank commodity analysts Michael Lewis, Michael Hsueh and Christina McGlone as saying that the yellow metal could hit as high as $2,960 in an 'extreme' case. The German bank's analysts saw room for the yellow metal to rise, considering some other historical measures, including base metals, crude oil, the producer price index, etc.
'Extreme' prices could be defined as rates ranging between $1,455 and $2,960. The table above, according to the analysts, shows such 'extreme' happenings, depending on different yardsticks.
muzaffarrizvi@khaleejtimes.com
