NEW DELHI: The sweet-and-sour story of Kerala's Gulf connection may be about to end in the next four to five years. Although Keralites continue going to Gulf in search of employment, there is a decreasing trend over the years.
Emigration to the Gulf region from Kerala stood at 2.28 million in 2011, up from 2.19 million in 2008, 1.84 million in 2003 and 1.36 million in 1998. Between 2008 and 2011, emigration grew at just 1.4 percent per year compared to 4.8 percent during 2003 and 2008 and over 7 percent during 1998 and 2003. In seven out of 14 districts in the state, the number of emigrants has declined compared to 2008.
The increase could vanish much before 2015 and the migration trend could very well slope downward, say K C Zachariah and S Irudaya Rajan of the Centre for Development Studies (CDS), Thiruvananthapuram. They have been carrying out the Kerala Migration Survey for the Kerala government since 1998. The latest survey was done in 2011 and a working paper based on that data released recently.
The survey also reports that there were an estimated 1.1 million "Gulf Wives" in the state, that is, women whose husbands are abroad, mostly in the Gulf region. Surprisingly, this number has hovered around the 1 million mark for the past 14 years even though the number of emigrants has gone up. In 2008 the number of "gulf Wives" was 1.06 million.
The survey busts a handful of myths about "Gulf money", that is, remittances sent home by emigrant Keralites. Only 17.1 percent of households in Kerala received any remittances from abroad contrary to the popular impression that many more were benefiting from a steady stream of mone flowing in from the Gulf. However, the proportion of households receiving remittances varied from just 11.4 percent among Hindus, to 14.4 percent among Christians and as high as 36.6 percent among Muslim households.
Emigrants sent home Rs.49,695 crore in 2011, that is, about Rs 63,315 per household. The enormity of this contribution is evident from the fact that this about 31 percent of the states's domestic product. Muslim households, due to their larger share in emigrant households, got nearly 47 percent of the total remittances, while Hindus got 36.4 percent and Christians 17 percent.
But why is this dream petering out? The study points to a host of factors that is discouraging fresh emigrants. The young working age population in Kerala is contracting because of low birth rates for the past many years. Another prohibitive factor appears to be the rapidly increasing cost of emigration, the report says.
Surprisingly, the wage differentials between Kerala and the Gulf region is also coming down. A recent survey of unskilled workers in the United Arab Emirates indicated an average monthly wage of Rs.11,869. Unskilled workers could earn more or less the same amount of money in Kerala, according to the survey analysis by CDS.
Kerala: Gulf dream ending? Emigrants (million) Annual Increase Annual % increase 1998 1.36 .. .. 2003 1.84 96000 7.1 2008 2.19 70000 3.8 2011 2.28 30000 1.4 Source: CDS, Thiruvananthapuram
Shafeeq thalassery
Always make a total effort, even when the odds are against you.
www.keralites.net          |
To subscribe send a mail to Keralites-subscribe@yahoogroups.com.
Send your posts to Keralites@yahoogroups.com.
Send your suggestions to Keralites-owner@yahoogroups.com.
To unsubscribe send a mail to Keralites-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com.
Homepage: www.keralites.net
No comments:
Post a Comment