Subject: : 12-11-2016 TODAY'S MESSAGE FROM TRICHY PRASANNAN
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Subject: 12-11-2016 TODAY'S MESSAGE FROM TRICHY PRASANNAN
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12-11-2016 TODAY'S MESSAGE FROM TRICHY PRASANNAN
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INTERESTING NEWS BITS ALL AROUND
The Man Who Advised PM Modi To Demonetise Rs 500 1000 Currency Notes
November 9, 2016
Prime Minister Narendra's Modi's sudden announcement of demonetising the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 has kept almost the entire country and people have descended into cash crunch ever since.
But there is a story behind this announcement and how one man, who was given just nine minutes to speak, resulted in the massive assault on black money.
Anil Bokil of Arthkranti, a Pune based financial think tank is the man who reportedly suggested some of the key measure to contain the flow of black money in economy and banning the big currency notes was one of them. Bokil who reportedly had met PM Modi, a few months back to give a presentation on financial reforms and how to contain the flow of black money. He was given time of just nine minutes to finish his argument, but PM Modi reportedly found his arguments so interesting that he kept discussing for almost two hours.
These were the main recommendations by Bokil:
1. Except import duty, stop collection of money under 56 different taxes
2. Ban big currency notes of Rs 1000, Rs 500 and even Rs 100
3. All transactions should take place via bank with help of cheque, Demand Draft and online.
4. Single banking system for revenue collection.
The reason Bokil reportedly gave behind these suggestions
Economic Times
1. In India, an average transaction of Rs 2.7 lakh crore is seen daily which accounts to Rs 800 lakh crore in a year. But only 20 per cent transaction out of this happens via banks, rest all takes place via cash which can't be traced.
2. Country's 78 per cent population spends only Rs 20 a day. Therefore, they don't require bigger currency notes.
Indian Stock Markets Lose 6 Lakh Crore In 15 Minutes. Who You Gonna Blame? Trump Or Modi!
November 9, 2016
Damn the shocker! This is actually a 9/11 for us in literal terms! America has showered Trump with some super sweet vote love and our PM has shown the world that he can take tough, maybe unpopular, decisions putting common good above all.
While we can surely say Americans went for the known dumbness over the unknown evil in choosing Trump over Hillary, the markets have not been that kind to the news. His victory has jolted global stock markets and this has led Indian investors to lose nearly Rs 6 lakh crore in trade in the first 15 minutes of trade on BSE, according to an ET Markets report.
In the first 15 minutes, the combined market capitalisation of BSE stocks had fallen by Rs 57,3827.36 crore to Rs 105 lakh crore from Rs 111 lakh crore at the end of the previous session.
While everyone is praising the government's ban on Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes, it is expected to hit many sectors such as real estate and jewellery, where cash transactions and, thus, use of black money is widespread.
The selloff in the market was such that as many as 1,875 of the 2,000-odd stocks trading on BSE were in the red and only 85 were in the green.
During the trade, Sensex slumped about 1,600 points to witness its biggest percentage slump since August 25. The index, however, recovered some bit within an hour.
THE BENEFITS OF THIS MOVE BY THE GOVERNMENT
The fact that the government was able to do this so secretly in such a connected manner speaks volumes. Indira Gandhi tried this in early 1970s, but could not as the move leaked out and the bad guys quickly changed over the notes. The government had to back out of the move then. I'm even thinking if the move to ban NDTV was just a ploy to distract the whole media, to pull this off.
There are 5 key incentives for this:
1. Bringing out illicit money sloshed in the parallel economy
2. Having a lid on the fake money racket supported by our western neighbor
3. Incentivizing India to cashless. The banks would not hand you wads of the new cash, but will just credit the money to your bank account in place of your old currency.
4. Moving the notes to a more secure standard - with better protection against counterfeiting.
5. Curbing inflation in real estate and reducing gold imports.
As the 6th incentive, it would impact coalitions ahead of the major elections in UP and Punjab. It is not shocking that elections, especially in these states with multi-dimensional politics [a lot of parties fighting] involve a lot of illicit money. MLAs get traded like horses - with suitcases of cash. Some of that trading get impacted.
Unlike in the past, I don't see much impact on normal users of currency. The transactions that happen on Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 should be moving to netbanking/check/cards anyway. If someone is still holding out against modern transaction methods this is the opportunity to come out from under the rock.
For the poor who don't have debit/credit cards, there might not be much impact either - as most of their transaction happen under Rs. 500.
Impact of the move
1. Black Money corruption: The impact on black money usage will be temporary as those would eventually move to the new Rs. 2000 notes in time. Also, a lot of the black money lies in real estate, gold and other physical things. Still even a temporary, small impact on this sector is better than nothing. The mere fear of government taking out your black money is good enough. That the government could so secretly do this will increase the fear.
2. Elections: Especially with the major elections barely weeks away, the move would impact politics in the crucial states. My guess is that the government waited for the Diwali to pass [will be a huge pain for many to have this move before the festival] and do it reasonably before the elections [EC could throw a spanner on any major move just before the elections]. Thus, unlike the previous occasions, the government didn't do this on January 16. It could have impact on corruption in those elections and it is a way of the government saying, "Check, Mahagathbandhan".
3. Counterfeiting: The impact on the counterfeit notes would be more significant. Many "dealers" with the existing counterfeit notes would be stuck as they would have to take the notes to the bank and have better chances of getting their racket exposed. Thus, they are more likely to destroy their notes and incur losses. Losses to the bad guys is good and maybe some of them could get shot unable to pay their debts. It would be quite hard to counterfeit the new currency and until they develop the technology for that, there will be an impact on counterfeit notes and terrorism that is funded through that.
4. Cashless society. All of the above things are temporary things. But, I believe the long lasting one could be in moving cashless. The pain of transferring cash could incentivize many to think about going bits and plastic. Today could be a day to introspect for the legal users of the currency. That could have a more significant impact on counterfeiting and unaccounted money.
5. Gold/silver. In the short term, gold and silver buying will be hampered, as a lot of the buyers buy with their black money. That means less importing. Over the long term, there might be more purchase of gold as the black money guys will be afraid to hold too much cash.
6. Real Estate. In the short term, prices of real estate would come down for the same reason above. There will be less suitcases moving. It is not clear what would happen to this sector in the long term. Maybe there could be a little more land buying, but that could be neutralized by the spiraling down of the prices that could go now.
7. Markets. This is overall a positive move that is lauded by a lot of people and could bring more confidence in Indian markets by overseas investors. However, the exit of black money temporarily could cause other repercussions in buying. I would not be surprised if the market goes a bit down in the short and medium term.
8. Overseas Indians. There is a lot of INR that gets transacted outside of India. Technically it is illegal [NRIs, foreigners can't leave with rupee], but there are not many practical alternatives. They would be impacted as they cannot change the money to the new notes quick and those overseas currency trading markets on rupee would be impacted [UAE money exchanges won't accept notes in India recall]. Some of these transactions are good ones that improve the economy, while others might help Dawood bhai like ones.
9. Banking to all. The government's key objective is to bring banking to all and this will help that. If you have more than Rs. 4000, the bank will not give you new notes, but will just ask you to open an account and credit it there. This when followed with the fees on ATM transactions will make it harder to transact on cash.
10. Consumption and economy. This is one thing I believe it is going to be negative. Black money drives a lot of the economy and now that it is gone, it will impact consumption levels. There could be a deflation and damp economic growth for a couple of quarters. In the long run it doesn't matter though.
OBVIOUSLY THE INITIAL 1 week will be difficult for most Indians as there is gonna be shortage of notes even in banks.
Sacks Full Of Burnt 500 And 1,000 Rupee Notes In Uttar Pradesh
NDTV News
Sacks full of burnt 500 rupee and 1,000 rupee notes were found in Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh.
Bareilly:
Highlights
1. Notes were cut, damaged and then burnt, say cops
2. Cops have collected remains of the burnt notes and informed RBI
3. PM Modi yesterday announced decision to scrap Rs. 500, Rs. 1000 notes
A day after the government discontinued Rs. 500 and 1000 notes in a shock announcement to curb black money, sacks full of burnt notes were found in Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh.
The burnt Rs. 500 and Rs. 1,000 notes were reportedly brought in sacks and then dumped by workers of a company on Parsa Kheda road at CB Ganj in Bareilly, sources said.
Police officials said the notes appeared to have been cut, damaged and then burnt.
The police has since taken over the remains of the currency notes and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials have been informed of the incident.
The burnt Rs. 500 and 1,000 notes were reportedly brought in sacks in Bareilly.
"We are examining the burnt notes to check for their authenticity,"
said Senior Superintendent of Bareilly, Joginder Singh.
We are the memory that we have
and the responsibility that we asume;
without memory
we don't exist and without responsibility maybe
we don't deserve to exist.
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